Signals 2026.
What 23,000 shoppers across 18 markets reveal about the future of international e-commerce, from spending shifts and social influence to checkout trust, payments and AI. Understand where complexity is rising, where growth moves next, and how to turn signals into action, today.
Pick a region. See where growth moves next.
As growth becomes more fragmented, the advantage goes to brands that can manage complexity across markets without compromising the customer experience. Click any region to surface the spending, payment, social and AI signals shaping consumer confidence.
Growth is shifting, and new markets are pulling ahead.
For years, brands could assume that Western markets would set the pace for e-commerce. Now, the growth map is being redrawn.
Demand is rising, new markets are opening up, and international commerce is becoming more connected. Younger consumers are pushing the market forward — spending more, discovering differently and adopting new behaviors faster than any other group. For brands, this is a moment to move: respond to local conditions and turn rising demand into revenue faster.
The center of gravity is moving east
67% of Middle East shoppers and 61% in Asia have increased discretionary spending — versus 44% in Europe and just 30% in North America.
The pattern is consistent: younger, faster-growing populations in the Middle East, South & Central America and Asia are pulling the global average up, while mature Western markets move at a steadier pace. Established markets still offer scale. Faster-growth regions may offer stronger upside, especially for brands ready to localize the experience and move early.
Prioritize markets where confidence is rising, then convert demand through localized checkout, trusted payments, clear duties and delivery — adapting market by market without rebuilding the model every time.
Joy and life experiences outrank status
In the markets pulling ahead, "enjoying life and experiences" is the #1 driver of spending (34%) — ahead of saving, family and wellbeing.
Meanwhile, "trends" and "self-expression" sit near the bottom (7%). The new growth markets are powered by optimism and lifestyle, not status — and brands that speak to that motivation will convert demand faster.
Clothing and travel lead the new-market basket
Even as prices rise, shoppers in the highest-growth regions hold the line on clothing (37%) and travel (32%) — categories tied to identity, experience and cross-border discovery.
Apparel in particular is the wedge product for entering Middle Eastern, Asian and Latin American markets at scale.
Discovery is exploding, but trust still decides where people buy.
The path to purchase is more dynamic, distributed and complex than ever. Social, search, marketplaces and AI all create demand — but purchases still happen where the experience feels reliable, familiar and clear.
Social has become a powerful engine of influence — especially among younger audiences — while AI is beginning to reshape how consumers search, compare and evaluate products. But conversion depends on whether checkout, payments, pricing, duties, delivery and returns feel local, clear and trusted at every step.
Discovery is fragmenting across every channel
Social has become the new shop window. 48% of consumers find new products on social media — ahead of search engines (38%) and physical stores (36%). But as discovery spreads fast, brands must manage a complex path from influence to purchase.
Brand and retailer websites still outperform other shopping channels for purchase.
Only 6% prefer to complete the purchase on social platforms. When money is involved, shoppers still move toward buying environments that feel familiar, secure and easy to trust.
Conversion depends on the moment shoppers are ready to buy. Brands keep the customer when the path feels trusted - local pricing, familiar payments, clear duties, reliable delivery and easy returns.
Clothing and footwear lead the basket
When demand turns into a purchase, the most-bought online category, by a clear margin, is clothing (69%). Footwear (53%) and electronics (45%) follow.
Apparel is still the proving ground for cross-border, mobile, social and AI-powered commerce. Win the trusted checkout there first — the rest of the basket follows.
Price opens the door. Trust closes the sale.
Asked to rank what makes them choose where to shop online, consumers put price first (22%) — but quality, secure checkout, fast delivery and a clear total cost cluster tightly behind.
Together those signals make up the trust architecture of checkout. Brands that pair competitive pricing with transparent total cost and a familiar payment mix convert demand into orders.
Where the buying environment must work hardest
In Africa (61%) and South & Central America (57%), the majority of shoppers are actively worried about online fraud. In the Middle East and Europe, that figure roughly halves.
Local pricing, familiar payment options, clear duties and reliable delivery aren't a nice-to-have in these markets — they're the difference between losing the transaction and keeping the customer relationship.
Checkout is where trust powers performance.
International demand is growing, but conversion is still local. At checkout, unclear cost, payment and delivery expectations can break trust in seconds.
International shopping is established behavior with 1 in 5 buying cross-border. What limits performance is uncertainty at the point of purchase: what the shopper will pay, how the order will arrive, whether the payment method feels familiar, and what happens if something goes wrong.
Buy internationally on a regular basis — and the share is growing.
International share by region
Where checkout trust matters most — % of online spend going abroad
Demand crosses borders when the offer is right
Half of cross-border buyers (50%) shop internationally for better prices, a third for wider choice (33%) and 27% for access to brands not sold locally.
AI READINESS
Where checkout trust breaks down
46% blame high shipping costs, 45% cite slow delivery, and more than a third are tripped up by customs. Payment security and unclear duties cost the rest.
Every one of these is a trust signal. Landed-cost transparency, prepaid duties, in-region fulfillment and locally trusted payment methods turn checkout from a moment of doubt into a moment of confidence.
Each detail reduces hesitation — total costs shown early, duties made visible, trusted local payments, clear delivery and returns. Together, they make the experience feel trusted and worth completing.
Choice is expanding. Trust is not shifting as fast.
Consumers have more ways to pay than ever before. But at scale, orders still cluster around a few dominant methods — and the mix changes sharply by market.
Payment choice has widened fast. Wallets are growing, BNPL is gaining ground, new options keep entering the mix. Yet conversion still leans on a small number of established rails, especially when the purchase crosses borders.
Based on ESW transaction data, 2026.
Cards still carry most of the volume
ESW transaction data shows 61% of international orders are placed on credit or debit cards. Wallets follow at 15% (driven largely by Apple Pay), PayPal at 11%, BNPL at 6%.
The mix is broadening, but volume is still concentrated. Newer methods are gaining share — they are not yet displacing the rails that carry the majority of orders.
The local mix shifts sharply
PayPal accounts for 53% of orders in Germany and 35% in Italy. In the UK, wallets reach 28% of orders. In the US, cards dominate at 63% with PayPal at 22%.
A checkout mix that works in one market will not necessarily convert in another. Payment performance is local — and the local default is the trust signal that matters most.
More choice of payment methods does not automatically create more confidence. The right local mix is what matters. Use transaction data to understand which methods carry trust in each market, then shape checkout around those behaviors.
Choice is expanding faster than the hierarchy of trust
Digital wallets have grown from 1% of orders in 2020 to 15% in 2026. BNPL has moved from 1% to 6% over the same period.
The direction of travel is clear but the center of gravity has barely shifted. Established behavior remains sticky. Newer methods earn trust gradually.
What shoppers say they trust at checkout
46% trust cards most for international purchases. PayPal takes another 30%. Wallets, bank transfers and BNPL split what's left between them.
Lead with card and PayPal acceptance, then layer locally trusted methods on top.
A regional story, not a global one
Buy Now Pay Later adoption ranges from 57% in the Middle East to just 21% in Europe — a 36-point gap. Oceania and Asia sit in the middle.
Treat BNPL as a regional play. In some markets it's expected at checkout; in others, surfacing it can actively erode trust.
AI is moving from experiment to competitive advantage.
AI is already reshaping how people search, compare and evaluate products. Consumers are most open when AI helps them decide faster — confidence drops as AI moves closer to payment, checkout and autonomous action.
The next phase of commerce will reward brands that make innovation feel safe, useful and easy to trust. AI-led journeys need the right trust architecture around them: clear checkout design, recognized payment options, visible protection and post-purchase reassurance.
Search, comparison and discovery lead adoption
64% of Middle Eastern consumers already trust AI to match products to their needs. North America and Oceania sit closer to 30%.
For brands, the priority is to build AI into journeys that feel useful, transparent and easy to trust in each market.
Only 31% are comfortable with AI-powered payments
Less than a third of global consumers say they're comfortable letting an AI complete a payment on their behalf — but comfort rises to 56% in the Middle East, signalling how quickly regional norms can shift.
The takeaway isn't "wait" — it's "earn". Transparency, easy override and small first-use cases (e.g. confirming a known reorder) build the trust that agentic commerce will need.
Half say no — for now
Asked if they'd let AI automatically re-order items, 49% say no, 35% say maybe, and only 16% say yes outright.
The "maybe" group is the prize. They're open in principle but waiting for the experience that proves it — clear checkout, recognized payments and visible protection are what turn maybe into yes.
Use AI where shoppers already see value: search, comparison, decisions and support. Agentic commerce should connect into the same model that supports checkout, shipping, tracking, returns and assurance.
Recommerce is rising — quietly, generationally.
Second-hand isn't yet the default, but younger shoppers are pushing the curve. Cost remains the entry point; quality and hygiene are the gatekeepers.
Resale isn't yet the global default — 40% have never bought second-hand — but a growing 35% buy at least sometimes. The curve is being pulled up by younger shoppers using cost as the entry point and sustainability as the story.
Most shoppers haven't bought second-hand — yet
40% of consumers have never bought second-hand, and another 24% only rarely. But 35% buy at least sometimes — and that cohort skews dramatically younger.
Translation: there's a normalization curve underway. Brands that own a resale channel today will own the customer relationship across both their first and second life.
Cost is the door. 57% buy second-hand because it's cheaper. Sustainability is a strong second.
Cheaper, then greener
Cost dwarfs every other reason at 57%. Sustainability (27%) is the second motivator, ahead of availability and unique product.
The honest sell isn't "save the planet" — it's "save money, and you happen to be doing some good".
Quality and hygiene gate the category
Quality (26%) and hygiene (22%) are the top concerns by a clear margin. Authenticity, warranty and returns matter too.
Verified condition grading, branded refurbishment, and easy returns are how recommerce moves from niche to default.
From signals to performance: what winning brands do differently.
Growth now depends less on broad reach and more on precision. The five signals in this report show where international ecommerce is changing, and what brands need to do in response.
Growth is shifting, and new markets are pulling ahead
Build for market variance, not one-size-fits-all averages
Growth is moving at different speeds across markets, and the same commerce model will not convert equally well everywhere. For brands pursuing international expansion, the priority is to make sharper market choices, then adapt the customer experience around local expectations, payment behaviors, duties, delivery and returns.
With operations across more than 200 countries and territories, ESW helps brands scale market by market without rebuilding the operating model every time.
Discovery is exploding, but trust still decides where people buy
Design for fragmented commerce surfaces
Discovery, consideration and transaction no longer happen in one place. Social, search, marketplaces and AI can all create demand, but conversion depends on whether the buying experience still feels connected, familiar and safe. This aligns directly to fragmented commerce and omnichannel complexity: brands need commerce everywhere, without letting the customer experience fragment behind the scenes.
ESW helps connect discovery, checkout, payments, localization, delivery and returns into one experience that feels consistent and trusted across channels and markets.
Checkout is where trust powers performance
Treat cross-border complexity as a conversion issue
Shipping costs, duties, taxes, delivery promises, payment options and returns are not just operational details. They are the moments where shoppers decide whether an international purchase feels worth completing. This directly reflects cross-border operational complexity, risk exposure and margin pressure: when these details are unclear, conversion weakens and cost pressure rises.
ESW helps brands make the buying experience clearer and more predictable, reducing friction at the moments where revenue is won or lost.
The payment paradox: choice is expanding, trust is not shifting as fast
Localize payment around trust, not just choice
Payment choice is expanding, but trust remains concentrated in established options and varies sharply by market. Brands need to configure payment around local behavior, not a standard international template. The right local mix can reduce hesitation, support conversion and improve the economics of international growth.
ESW's proprietary payment data helps brands understand performance by market, device and method, so checkout can be shaped around the options customers already trust.
AI is moving from experiment to competitive advantage
Use AI where it helps shoppers move faster while staying in control
AI can help shoppers search, compare, decide and resolve issues faster, but confidence drops as it moves closer to payment, checkout and autonomous decision-making. This makes AI a technology-change trigger, not a standalone commerce strategy. Agentic commerce needs to connect into the same operating model that already supports checkout, shipping, tracking, returns and post-purchase assurance.
ESW absorbs complexity for brands as new channels and technologies emerge, protecting the brand experience while supporting international growth.
Together, these actions turn Signals into a practical growth agenda: read where demand is moving, understand where friction is rising, and focus investment where it has the greatest impact on conversion, trust and performance.
The next phase of ecommerce growth will favor brands that can read the signals, act decisively and rely on the right partner to absorb complexity. The winners will protect the brand experience while turning trust and execution into measurable performance.
Get the full Signals report.
Turn signals into performance with more data and expert analysis connecting what people say, what they do and where growth is moving next.